In the post “Market prediction 2009-2014” published 17 months ago on TradingView.com I pointed out the possibility of S&P reaching the 1650 target. As we all see the target has been surpassed. Here I update the analysis with in dept detailed wave counting and projections.
How did I set this target more than year ago? The 1.618x projection of the third wave (872.81 to 1370.49) was level of 1678 (the bold blue retracement). As described earlier in the forecasting page and backtesting this method in Stock Market Cycle And Market Peak Projecting proved to be relatively accurate in market peak setting. To be precise here I have counted the waves in details. Thus projecting the 3rd wave (from 1627.59 to 1806.55) of the last C leg gives target of area of 1806-1917 for the final wave 5, which coincides with the bull market peak. After recent sell off there is high probability that “the big” wave 5 of the bull market started 2009 has been completed.
|Bull market 2009-2014 peak|
What’s next? The most worrying thing, however, is that not only Elliot wave analysis flashes bear signal. The market cycle theory confirms that as well. Historically the average bull phase lasts on average 5 years. Currently we are at the fifth year of the bull market, so stay focused.
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